In poker, variance refers to the natural ups and downs in results caused by short-term luck. Even if you make the right decisions, you can still lose—because poker involves probability, and outcomes don’t always match the odds in the short run.
Variance is what explains winning streaks and downswings. It’s especially noticeable in tournaments, where even great players can go long stretches without a cash, or suddenly hit a huge score. In cash games, variance is usually smoother but still present.
While variance can be frustrating, it’s a normal part of poker. Long-term success comes from making good decisions consistently and managing your bankroll to survive the swings.
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